Process
Seven gates between an idea and live capital.
Each step ends in a gate with a written pass condition. A failed gate sends the idea back to research or ends it. The right-hand column shows TB3c, our options overlay, at each step.
#StepWhat happensGate to passTB3c
1
HypothesisWhy should this earn money?
What happensState the idea, the economic reason it should pay, who is on the other side, and the objective: income, growth or protection.
Gate to passA falsifiable claim and a reason it should persist after costs.
TB3cOption income on top of an existing portfolio, defined-risk spreads only, every exit by rule.
2
Pre-registrationRules before results
What happensWrite down the pass/fail rules, the test window and the comparison before any backtest runs.
Gate to passRules recorded in advance, so results cannot move the goalposts.
TB3cEach rule change was tested against criteria set before the run. Every alternative tried is logged.
3
DataHistory and live feeds
What happensLoad minute-to-daily history for prices, full option chains and futures contracts. The same source feeds live trading.
Gate to passStress periods covered and data errors found and fixed first.
TB3cHourly SPY option quotes from January 2012, covering 2018, 2020 and 2022.
4
BacktestReplay history with costs
What happensThe rules run through history as code, day by day, paying commissions and the quoted bid/ask on every trade.
Gate to passResults after costs judged against the objective in the brief; losing years shown and understood.
TB3c6,444 spreads over 2012–2025 with $81,764 of fees. Every year shown, 2022 included.
5
RobustnessStress the settings
What happensTry neighbouring settings, other sizes and instruments, sub-periods and stressed costs, one change at a time.
Gate to passThe result must not hinge on one lucky setting.
TB3cSeven rule alternatives tested, plus SPX index options at $5M and $10M.
6
Paper tradingSame code, simulated money
What happensThe exact code trades at the broker: live quotes and real order routing, with fills simulated by the broker.
Gate to passOrders, fills and recovery behave as tested; every incident logged and investigated.
TB3cInteractive Brokers paper account since 21 Oct 2026. After two broker disconnects, the position book reloaded and matched the broker on restart.
7
Live executionSmall first, then scale
What happensStart at a fraction of target size and scale in steps as real fills and costs confirm the paper results.
Gate to passReal fill quality, costs and risk limits in line before each step up.
TB3cFollows the paper data-collection phase.